Welcome
November 21, 2009

 
tickerspy ResearchWire
 
Main
Archive for August, 2009
  China’s Vaccine Approval Sends Flu Stocks Soaring
8/31/09 

Flu news from China has driven the market higher over the last week, today sending stocks up by as much as 30%.

Last week the Beijing Public Health Bureau announced that Sinovac Biotech (SVA) will be among the providers of 2.8 million city-sponsored seasonal flu inoculations. Investors who bought into the close on Friday are winning big to start this week, as shares are trading at record highs on more news from the Far East.

Chinese health regulators deemed Beijing-based Sinovac’s H1N1 vaccine applicable for people between the ages of 3 and 60 years old, according to a statement by the company. According to Reuters, Sinovac expects to obtain a production license for its vaccine within a week.

The news is helping the Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index today. As a whole, the Index is up by 4.5% today, and is now outpacing the S&P 500 by 9% over the last month.

Big winners include Canadian Alpha Pro Tech (APT), Oregon-based AVI BioPharma (AVII), and California’s Dynavax Technologies (DVAX). All three are up by over 8% in the flu stock rally.

Pharmaceutical giants Novartis (NVS) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) are sitting out the rally, moving only fractionally.

Vical (VICL) is the Index’s runner-up on a weekly performance basis, up by 28% over the last five days. Meanwhile former hot stock Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) has cooled off for the period, down -7%.

As flu season approaches in the northern hemisphere, the hype around swine flu stocks is growing. Expectations for an outbreak this fall reach as high as 50% of the U.S. population, and unlike the seasonal flu, swine flu is killing mostly people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s worldwide, according to the Associated Press.

The Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index is the best place to follow vaccine related trends in the equity markets. Investors should also track the Airline Stocks Index, Hotel Stocks Index, and others that could potentially be impacted by a severe outbreak of the virus.

Investors can follow these Indexes as well as more than 250 others at tickerspy.com.

  Gas-Saving Hybrid Cars Could Ignite a New Shortage
8/31/09 

Hybrid cars are light on gasoline consumption, but they are already straining the global supply of some rare metals.

Hybrid cars like the Toyota (TM) Prius and the Honda (HMC) Insight are marketed as eco-friendly vehicles. Both can drive more than 40 miles on a gallon of gasoline, but their appetite for other commodities could pose a problem down the road. According to Reuters, if new production sources are not developed, the global demand for rare earths (a group of metallic elements that account for 15 places on the periodic table) will exceed supply by 40,000 tonnes annually in several years. Perhaps a neodymium-guzzler tax is in order.

Among the other rare earths facing potentially problematic shortage are those that are used in the production of lightweight magnets used in electric motors. Legendary value investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B) made headlines after his investment in Hong Kong-listed electric carmaker BYD earned quick $1 billion. The last thing the company needs is more input costs – BYD’s e6 model, which is scheduled for sale in the U.S. in 2010 already carries a $40,000 price tag.

The companies in the Energy Storage and Battery Technology Stocks Index will likely need to work with carmakers to overcome issues relating to lanthanum, which is used in hybrid car batteries.

Johnson Controls (JCI), Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT), Altair Nanotechnologies (ABAT), and Enersys (ENS) are all involved in battery technology.

Some of the same rare earths used in hybrid car motors are also used in wind turbine generators, making the Wind Energy Stocks Index another group to watch.

Investors can follow the above Indexes and more than 250 others at tickerspy.com.

  Can Subsidies Save T. Boone Pickens’ Plan?
8/31/09 

Subsidies are stimulating investment in wind energy – hopefully some dollars are directed to infrastructure.

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. taxpayers are financing a clean energy initiative that will provide cash rebates equal to 30% of the building costs associated with the production of renewable energy facilities. The program is sending some big money to the largely cash-strapped wind energy sector. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Citigroup (C) have both sunk $100 million into wind farms this month, according to The Journal.

The subsidies will most likely need to support some upgrades to existing energy transmission lines or else the benefits of the program will be limited to the wind-rich Midwest. T. Boone Pickens hit the brakes on his massive multibillion dollar wind farm, not because of capital strains (according to his explanation), but because the ability to transmit energy from the wind farms to major population centers just isn’t there.

Experts quoted in The Journal seemed to be optimistic about the program. Kevin Walsh, director of General Electric’s (GE) GE Energy Financial Services division, said, “We see opportunities and we are pursuing them pretty actively.” Liz Salerno, director of industry analysis at the American Wind Energy Association, “would not be surprised if the program is ridiculously successful and spurs a huge development.” If she’s right, now may be a good time to take another look at the Wind Energy Stocks Index.

Pros were adding to a number of wind energy positions during the second quarter. Quanta Services (PWR), the Index’s largest component, is also its most popular among Pro investors. At the start of the third quarter, 16 Pros held Quanta among their top-15 U.S.-listed equity positions. Owens Corning (OC), Trinity Industries (TRN), and Woodward Governor (WGOV) are also popular among Pros.

Pickens, despite his massive push for wind energy over the last year, still doesn’t hold any of the Wind Energy Stocks Index components among BP Capital Management’s top-15 U.S.-listed holdings.

A number of wind energy stocks dropped in value over the last week, some by more than -3%. Investors can now buy shares of A-Power Energy Generation Systems (APWR) at a -16% discount from their week ago prices thanks to weaker-than-expected second-quarter profits. Broadwind Energy (BWEN), Tetra Tech (TTEK), and MasTec (MTZ) have all dropped by -5% or more in the last five trading days.

The Wind Energy Stocks Index is one of the 25 worst performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, down by -3.2%. Investors can follow the Index and more than 250 others at tickerspy.com.

  Hazy Outlook Provides Solar Buying Opportunity
8/28/09 

Chinese solar stocks suffered over the last month on near-term demand concerns, and many investors are taking the dip as an opportunity to buy at a discount.

The near-term outlook for solar stocks is a bit shaky due to demand concerns. According to technology research firm iSuppli, the industry faces an oversupply issue through 2012. However, the industry is not doomed, maybe just due for a shake-up. The negativity has driven many Chinese solar names down by -20% or more in the last month, and some investors are picking winners on the dip.

As a whole, the Chinese Solar Stocks Index has fallen by -13.5% over the last month, -19% behind the S&P. Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Solarfun Power Holdings (NADSAQ: SOLF) and JA Solar (JASO) have led the decline with losses of over -25%.

Though perhaps dampened, demand still exists. LDK Solar (LDK) is trading higher by 4% today after the company announced a 500 megawatt (MW) development with a Chinese city. According to Reuters, Suntech Power Holdings (STP), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and ReneSola (SOL) have also secured large Chinese development deals in the last few weeks.

LDK and Suntech are still trading at a more than -18% discount to month-ago prices. Canadian Solar and ReneSola, the top two performers for the period, are moving up and down respectively by less than 2%.

China Sunergy (CSUN) is giving back some of yesterday’s earnings rally. Adjusted earnings per American depository share came in at 3 cents in the second quarter. The company’s margins, like its peers, have been hurt by industry-wide price decreases. China Sunergy expects to ship between 48 and 55 MW of solar panels in the third quarter, according to Reuters.

Trina Solar (TSL) joins LDK, China Sunergy, and ReneSola as a winner this week, topping the sector with a 7% gain. Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar prefers Trina to Chinese giant Suntech because of Trina’s lower cost structure and stronger shipment growth, according to the Associated Press.

As of this writing, the Chinese Solar Stocks Index is the second-worst performing tickerspy Index over the last month. It is outperforming only the broader Solar Stocks Index, which is weighed on by Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) among others.

  Intel Demand Up, Computer Stocks Follow
8/28/09 

Intel (INTC) boosted its Q3 outlook on better-than-expected demand, a good sign for computer stocks.

Intel, whose microprocessors can be found in three-quarters of all personal computers, announced that its third-quarter margins should be in the upper half of the previously forecast 51% to 55% expectations. Investors are taking the news as a good sign for PC demand, and are sending related stocks on an end of week rally.

As a whole, the Personal Computer and Smartphone Stocks Index is ahead by 2.7% today. Still, it remains behind the S&P 500 by -4.7% over the last month.

Dell (NADSAQ: DELL) is on a double-digit run this week after reporting better-than-expected earnings after the bell yesterday. The company recorded profits of $472 million or 24 cents a share in the second quarter. CEO Michael Dell said the company expects stronger revenue in the second half.

Meanwhile, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Apple (AAPL) are trading higher by less than 1% on the news from Dell and Intel.

Apple received a lot of press this week ahead of today’s Snow Leopard launch. The company’s new operating system is fairly minimalistic as far as upgrades go, but the smaller size frees up hard drive space and allows for faster computing speeds.

Finnish mobile phone giant Nokia (NOK) announced plans to enter the PC market earlier this week. The company’s Booklet 3G netbook, a pint-sized version of a fully functioning laptop designed for convenient use on wireless networks, will compete with existing products from Dell, Acer, and HP, as well as the highly anticipated Apple tablet.

Palm (PALM), which uses Intel chips in some of its handhelds, is up by 4% in today’s rally. The stock has now rallied by more than 1100% from its 52-week low in December.

Blackberry maker, Research In Motion (RIMM) is a laggard this week, down by -3.5% while the rest of the sector advanced.

As of this writing, the Personal Computer and Smartphone Stocks Index is just shy of the the 50 worst performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, up by 1%.

Investors can follow the Personal Computer and Smartphone Stocks Index as well as more than 250 other sector-based Indexes at tickerspy.com.

  Beijing’s Flu Bet: Investors Win Big
8/28/09 

News from China sent the swine flu Index higher to end an impressive week.

The Beijing Public Health Bureau plans to provide 2.8 million of the city’s citizens with inoculations in preparation for the upcoming flu season. Four manufacturers will supply the vaccines, and considering the expected H1N1 virus outbreak this fall, it is no surprise that Sinovac Biotech (SVA) is one of them.

Sinovac can produce multiple different vaccines at the same time – a valuable capability in years when more complicated flu strains, such as the H1N1 virus, develop. “We are confident of our flexibility to be able to fill large seasonal flu vaccine orders while also executing the R&D and large-scale production of our H1N1 vaccine,” said Sinovac Chairman, President, and CEO, Weidong Yin. The company’s swine flu vaccine recently showed positive top-line preliminary results in clinical trials, and contrary to the expectations of the medical community, it required only one shot to be effective. The stock has been a top performer since the news, and is adding another 15% to the rally in today’s session.

As a whole, the Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index is one of the week’s top-5 performing tickerspy Indexes. It is up by 10% for the period, and is currently trading ahead of the S&P 500 by 4% over the last month.

Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX), Novavax (NVAX), Alpha Pro Tech (APT), and Vical (VICL) have all earned their investors double-digit returns this week.

The Index’s largest components by market-cap are all trading within -20% of their 52-week highs. Roche (OTC: RHHBY), Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), and AstraZeneca (AZN) are all less than -10% from annual highs.

Glaxo sat out this week’s swine flu rally, as did small-caps Dynavax (DVAX) and Crucell (CRXL).

Investors interested in the sector keep an eye on the Swine and Bird Flu Stocks Index, as new developments will be reflected in the share value of these equities.

For more on the Swine Flu play and movements of more than 250 other sector-based Indexes visit tickerspy.com.

  Dot-Com Hero Contends with Hedge Fund Slide
8/28/09 

2008 saw Peter Thiel emerge as new hedge fund star with a penchant for making outsized bets on a handful of equities.

More recently, however, his fund Clarium Capital Management has struggled, with the NY Post reporting recently that the fund’s size has dropped to around $1.9 billion from $7.3 billion. The culprit was 2008’s second half slide. Even though the fund managed to close the year down just -4.5%, far better than the broader market, spooked investors pulled their money out.

Nonetheless, investors remain intrigued by Thiel’s pedigree as a co-founder of PayPal back in the dot-com era and as a board member of popular social networking website Facebook, where he reportedly owns a 5% stake.

Thiel has generally eschewed his dot-com roots and tended toward blue chip, value-oriented holdings. Clarium’s top holdings at the end of Q2 show SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY) as the largest stake. Thiel was adding shares there during Q2.

During Q2, Thiel was also adding to stakes in computer maker Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), specialty home retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY), and for-profit education company Apollo Group (Nasdaq: APOL).

Meanwhile, he was trimming stakes in former top holding Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), burger giant McDonald’s (MCD), and power wholesaler NRG Energy (NRG).

At tickerspy.com, members can track Clarium’s latest holdings, see a graph of their combined performance, and be notified when new holdings are made public.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  Ackman Cuts Target Stake, Shows off Concentrated Portfolio
8/28/09 

After a long and tortuous saga, William Ackman is scaling back his big bet on Target (TGT). In a recent filing with the SEC, Ackman indicated that his hedge fund Pershing Square had reduced its outsized stake in the discount retailer by nearly half. Ackman was mostly selling call options in Target, and as of the end of Q2, Ackman’s equity stake in Target was unchanged from the prior quarter.

In a year of bad bets, William Ackman’s 2008 leveraged bet on the discount retailer went spectacularly bad. According to Bloomberg, Ackman’s Pershing Square IV fund, which used options to make a leveraged bet on shares of Target, had fallen -90% as of early February. In the midst of all this, Ackman tried and failed to secure a slate of board seats as he pushed for changes at the company.

Looking at Pershing’s U.S.-listed, equity holdings from the end of Q2, one can see Ackman’s then still unchanged Target stake at the center of an increasingly narrowly-focused long portfolio. During the quarter, Pershing upped stakes in McDonald’s (MCD), tech blue chip EMC (EMC), and outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing (Nasdaq: ADP).

Pershing held steady with stakes in book retailer Borders Group (BGP) and David Einhorn-controlled reinsurer Greenlight Capital Re (Nasdaq: GLRE). Meanwhile, credit card company Visa (V) and fast food firm Wendy’s Arby’s Group (WEN) disappeared from the Pershing portfolio.

At tickerspy.com, members can track Pershing’s latest holdings, see a graph of their combined performance, and be notified when new holdings are made public.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  Dry Bulk Stocks Float Higher on COSCO News
8/27/09 

It has been a rough month for dry bulk stocks, but investors who bought on the recent weakness won big on Thursday.

Dry bulk shipping stocks are up big after China COSCO announced a smaller-than-expected loss in the first six months of 2009. The company, China’s largest shipping group, lost -4.59 billion yuan in the first half, better than the -4.84 billion yuan loss expected by analysts. The company said, “In the face of the significant over-supply and re-surging oil prices, it is expected that the operational conditions for the second half of the year will remain difficult,” according to Reuters. Still investors are pouring money into dry bulk shipping names, sending some higher by double-digits.

As a whole, the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index is ahead by 2.5% today. The Index remains behind the S&P 500 by -12% over the last month.

DryShips (DRYS) is up by 10% today, followed by Excel Maritime (EXM) and Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE), which are both adding more than 4% in the rally.

Over the last month only Kirby Shipping (KEX) and Omega Navigation Enterprises (ONAV) have broken into positive territory. Over the last week, however, the sector has rallied across the board, leaving only Euroseas (ESEA) and Safe Bulkers (SB) in negative territory.

Kirby excluded, the entire sector remains more than -50% below its 52-week high. Investors betting on an economic recovery can still buy shares of Oceanfreight (OCNF) at a -90% discount from its September 2008 price above $19.

As of this writing, the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index is one of the 10 worst performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month, down by -7%.

Investors can track the Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Index and view related charts and metrics at tickerspy.com.

  AIG Investors: Thanks Hank
8/27/09 

After rallying hard into the close on Wednesday, AIG (AIG) added another double-digit gain.

AIG shares are up another 30% today after current chief Robert Benmosche told Reuters that he recently sought council from former CEO Maurice “Hank” Greenberg. Greenberg was at the helm for nearly 40 years, and had a significant role in building AIG into the world’s largest insurance company. Greenberg was forced out of his position in 2005. Benmosche told Reuters that while the long-time CEO had some problems, “he can help us with the solutions.” Investors seem to agree with the sentiment, buying up shares and squeezing out more of the company’s still significant short interest on the way up.

AIG’s 275% one-month gain has helped the Property and Casualty Insurance Stocks Index to an average gain of 6% for the period. Today the Index is bucking the trend on a down-day, trading higher fractionally.

While news surrounding AIG grabs most of the sector’s headlines, a number of companies have made impressive runs recently. Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) and CNA Financial Corp (CNA) are both up by more than 40% over the last month. Hartford has now rallied by 600% since March lows, trailing only AIG and Phoenix Companies’ (PNX), which is up 1100% from its 52-week low. All three, however, remain more than -65% from their 52-week highs.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B) is a laggard over the last month, up 3% when much of the sector has shown double-digit returns, fellow multi-billion dollar player Travelers (TRV) included.

Continued improvement of the financial markets will have a beneficial impact on these stocks, whose profits depend partially on the ability to earn returns on invested capital.

Investors can track changes in industry trends via the Property and Casualty Insurance Stocks Index at tickerspy.com