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November 20, 2009

 
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  Big Gains Found Among Select Sectors in Wild Week for Markets
11/20/09 

The Dow is trending lower to end a week when through Wednesday’s close the bulls showed strength and resilience.

Most of Monday’s triple-digit gains for the Dow were erased yesterday, after the bulls rallied from lows to end the prior two sessions. With stocks headed south to end the week, a number of investors are left shaken by the volatility. In certain sectors, however, prudent stock picking led to outsized gains as investors bid up share values on optimism for future prospects.

The Home Furnishing Retailer Stocks Index advanced by 17% today on the back of a 20.4% surge by Kirkland’s (NADSAQ: KIRK), the bulk of which came during today’s session. The company turned a profit of $5.6 million or 27 cents a share during fiscal Q3 ended October 31, significantly better than last year’s -$1.5 million loss for the same period.

Williams Sonoma (WSM) was also a big winner this week, adding 11% after reporting a swing to profitability in its fiscal Q3 ended November 1. Pier 1 Imports (PIR) was second runner-up for the period, though it is paring weekly gains to less than 10% with a loss during today’s session.

The Chinese Solar Stocks Index soared ahead of the S&P 500 this week, and is now beating the benchmark by more than 12% over the last month. Investors flocked to the sector as company after company reported surging shipment volumes on strong demand for solar modules.

The group’s top performer, LDK Solar (LDK) is up by 25% for the week ahead of its pre-market earnings report on Monday. Other big winners include Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and Trina Solar (TSL), which are all up by more than 10% in the last five sessions.

Components of the Agricultural Chemical and Fertilizer Stocks Index can thank CNBC stock picking guru Jim Cramer for a dose of optimism this week.

Cramer noted that the fertilizer market is finally “at a bottom worth playing.” If the call is accurate, that would certainly be good news for companies like Potash (POT), Monsanto (MON), and Mosaic (MOS). All three are up by more than 7% in the last five sessions, but China Green Agriculture (CGA) set the pace with a massive 27% weekly run.

For more on tickerspy’s top-performing Indexes visit tickerspy.com.

  Amid Gambling Slump in Vegas, a Massive Overseas Casino IPO
11/20/09 

Overall, it’s been a rough month for U.S.-listed casino stocks, but amid struggles in Las Vegas, a massive Macau operation is about to go on the block.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson is set to raise as much as $3.4 billion in the Hong Kong IPO of Macau unit Sands China. The company will sell 1.87 billion shares as early as tomorrow, according to Bloomberg. With a forecasted price range of HK$10.38 to HK$13.88 each, high-end estimates would bring Sands China’s total market capitalization to approximately HK$110 billion.

Las Vegas Sands is currently the largest U.S.-listed casino operator in the Casino Stocks Index, with a total capitalization of $11 billion. Based on the current exchange rate, that’s more than -20% smaller than high-end estimates of the Macau unit.

Elsewhere in the casino sector stocks have gotten much cheaper over the last month. While a recent report from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority showed that Sin City traffic was up 3.3% year-over-year in September, a number of casino operators reported declines in gambling revenue in the third quarter.

Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL), Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI), and Boyd Gaming (BYD) have all slipped by more than -20% in the last month. Meanwhile, Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE), Century Casinos (CNTY), and $3.1 billion MGM Mirage (MGM) have all slipped by 10% or more for the period.

Peripheral plays on the gambling segment in the Gaming and Slot-Machine Stocks Index haven’t fared much better. Bally Technologies (BYI) is the sector’s only component to remain positive on a one-month basis. International Game Technology (IGT) and WMS Industries (WMS) are down by more than -7% in just the last week.

While the outlook for casino stocks is still a bit hazy, the sector has gotten cheap relative to earnings. As of this writing, the Casino Stocks Index is one of the 30 cheapest tickerspy Indexes by P/E ratio with an average multiple of 14x.

Investors can track the Casino Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

  Yale Endowment Prefers ETFs, Selected Equities
11/20/09 

Like just about everyone else with exposure to Wall Street’s woes, university endowments took a big hit during the economic downturn.

According to Bloomberg, Yale’s endowment lost -25% during fiscal 2009. The value of the Harvard endowment dropped by -27.3% over that period.

As is the case at Harvard, Yale’s endowment owns a variety of alternative investments, but it has also disclosed holdings in a handful of U.S.-listed equities. We recently took a look at Harvard’s strategy and noted the prevalence of international-focused ETFs in its portfolio. Yale, meanwhile, appears to have scaled way back on its equity portfolio.

Looking at Yale’s top U.S.-listed holdings at the end of Q3, the endowment’s top positions ware in ETFs iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA) and iShares S&P 100 Index (OEF).

Besides the ETFs, Yale’s end-of-Q3 portfolio included stocks like biotech Celgene (Nasdaq: CELG), natural gas firm Crosstex Energy (Nasdaq: XTXI), data center firm Rackspace Hosting (RAX), and big bank JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

Looking at tickerspy.com’s graph charting the performance of the Yale’s end-of-Q3 holdings so far in Q4, one can see that the holdings are ahead of the market. If you want to see how your performance stacks up to Yale’s or see some of the other stocks it’s invested in, visit tickerspy.com to see Yale’s top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  25% Market Share for Plug-Ins by 2020, Pessimism on Buffett’s Pick
11/20/09 

Forecasting the potential proliferation of electric vehicles is a tricky task for investors.

When legendary value investor and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B) CEO Warren Buffett talks, Wall Street listens. But when legions of like-minded money managers and individual investors follow his moves, it sometimes inflates stock prices beyond what Buffett would have been willing to pay in the first place.

On Tuesday, analyst Chardan Capital Market advised clients that the Buffett factor may have lifted Chinese electric carmaker and battery company BYD (OTC: BYDDF) too far, too fast. “It’s time to get off this bus,” Chardan explained, according to a report by Bloomberg. “Given that electric vehicles remain years away from gaining meaningful penetration, we would recommend investors take profits.”

So how far away is meaningful market share for electric vehicles? Certainly no one can be sure, but the Electrification Coalition offered its opinion earlier this week. According to AutoBlog, the coalition calls for plug-ins to make up 25% of the market by 2020. Given that some components of the Energy Storage and Battery Technology Stocks Index are members, the group’s outlook could be an optimistic one, but an interesting mix of other companies are also represented.

There are currently 13 Electrification Coalition members, seven of which are managers of U.S.-listed companies. Battery maker A123 (AONE) and global power solutions company Johnson Controls (JCI) are both represented, as are shipper FedEx (FDX), chemical company Rockwood Holdings (ROC), wind energy products firm AeroVironment (AVAV), and power companies NRG Energy (NRG) and PG&E (PCG). Nissan Motor Company CEO Carlos Ghosn is another notable member.

While it could be some time before electric cars are commonplace, there is a major push for their development underway. Among the takeaways from President Barack Obama’s recent China visit was a U.S.-China Electric Vehicles Initiative, which among other things calls for joint standards of development and public education projects.

Investors looking to capitalize on future developments in the electric car market can do so via a number of auto-oriented players in the Energy Storage and Battery Technology Stocks Index. As of this writing the majority of Index components have been discounted by double-digit percentages over the last month.

  A Glimpse into Hedge Fund Zebra’s Complex Strategy
11/20/09 

With a stated mantra that it is “searching for patterns in financial markets,” hedge fund Zebra Capital Management is among the vanguard of quantitative funds that use complex formulas and brute force computing power to generate returns from volatile markets.

The fund was founded in 2001 by Roger Ibbotson and Zhiwu Chen, a pair of professors of finance at Yale School of Management. Their approach is described on the fund’s website: “Zebra Capital believes that fundamentals drive security prices in the long run, but in the short term price dislocations can occur due to human behavior, fear and emotions. It is our belief that a disciplined quantitative approach, rooted in fundamentals and backed by extensive research, can best realize profits.”

In practice, this likely means that Zebra uses a variety of financial instruments for its investments and likely only holds equity positions for a short period.

Nonetheless, investors can look at Zebra’s recently disclosed, top-15, U.S.-listed equity positions to get a glimpse of the unique funds strategy. At the end of Q3, Zebra was holding a mix of names with positions under $200,000 in value (tiny compared to most big hedge funds). The top holding for the firm at the end of Q3 was in ETF iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB).

Zebra also disclosed holdings in solar play Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), KFC-parent Yum Brands (YUM), heavy equipment maker Terex (TEX), coffee producer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), oil explorer and producer Brigham Exploration (BEXP), and Sun Microsystems (JAVA), which is set to be acquired by Oracle (ORCL).

Looking at tickerspy.com’s graph charting the performance of Zebra’s end-of-Q3 holdings so far in Q4, one can see that the holdings have kept pace with the market, albeit with a good deal of volatility. If you want to see how your performance stacks up to Zebra’s or see some of the other stocks it’s invested in, visit tickerspy.com to see the hedge fund’s top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  Value-Focused Third Avenue Makes Picks for Double-Digit Returns
11/20/09 

Marty Whitman, the legendary value investor who runs mutual fund firm Third Avenue Management, signaled his confidence in the market (and his own stock-picking abilities) by pouring $3 million into his firm’s flagship Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX) during late 2008 and early 2009.

The bet continues to look prescient, with the fund up around 37% year to date. In a recent letter to investors, Third Avenue boiled down its philosophy: “in common stock investing, the sole, or almost sole, focus is on buying into well-financed companies at steep discounts from readily ascertainable NAV where there are reasonable prospects for double digit NAV growth over the next five years or so.”

So, which stocks fit the bill in the minds of Third Avenue’s managers?

Looking at Third Avenue’s top-15, U.S.-listed, equity holdings, which are aggregated across all its funds, one can see that the firm was increasing its holdings in a number of its largest stakes during Q3, including The Bank of New York Mellon (BK), waste management firm Covanta (CVA), independent oil and gas producer Encana (ECA), diversified conglomerate Leucadia (LUK), and drilling contractor Nabors Industries (NBR).

Third Avenue’s largest equity stake at the end of Q3 was in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM), where the firm was trimming shares during Q3. Third Avenue was also trimming stakes in communications equipment maker Sycamore Networks (SCMR), Korean steelmaker Posco (PKX), and independent oil and gas producer Cimarex Energy (XEC).

Looking at tickerspy.com’s graph charting the performance of Third Avenue’s end-of-Q3 holdings during the current quarter, one can see that the holdings have been beating the market. If you want to see how your performance stacks up to Third Avenue’s or see some of its other holdings, visit tickerspy.com to see the firm’s top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  Earnings, Upgrades Power Solar Stocks on a Down Day
11/19/09 

More earnings reports meant more big gains for select Chinese solar stocks on Thursday.

We’re starting to sound like a broken record, but it seems Chinese solar stocks can’t disappoint with their third-quarter performance. This morning’s reports from Suntech Power Holdings (STP) and Trina Solar (TSL) provided further confirmation of a demand surge in the sector, and investors are bidding up select components by as much as 10%.

As a whole, the Chinese Solar Stocks Index is ticking higher on mixed performance from individual stocks.

Suntech announced a -30% decline in third-quarter earnings this morning, bringing in $29.8 million or 16 cents per American Depository Share (ADS). The EPS was double analysts’ 8-cent forecast, and the company lifted its full-year shipment guidance by 10%. Suntech chairman and CEO Dr. Zhengrong Shi added, “Looking forward, we expect the sales momentum to carry into the new year and see potential for at least 75% shipment growth in 2010.”

Meanwhile, Trina Solar saw its third-quarter profits increase by 25% to $40.1 million or $1.29 per ADS, well above analysts’ 84-cent consensus. The company shipped a record 123 megawatts of solar modules in Q3, and Trina’s management also expects further upside to end the year. “We are seeing even stronger demand in the fourth quarter, reflecting increasing brand recognition for our products and a further improvement in financing conditions,” explained CEO Jifan Gao in the press release.

While Suntech and Trina are among the day’s winners, Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF) is setting the pace with a 10% run. The stock is now up by more than 35% in the last five sessions, accelerating after more than doubling the Street’s Q3 EPS estimates yesterday morning. Oppenheimer upgraded Solarfun to Outperform from Perform this morning with analysts citing limited downside in the event of worsened macro conditions, according to Reuters. Oppenheimer has a $10 price target on the stock.

Canadian Solar (NADSAQ: CSIQ) is also among the day’s top performers, adding 4% to its five-day 30% rally.

Today’s losers include Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Renesola (SOL), and LDK Solar (LDK), which is giving back -3% after a 20% spike during yesterday’s session. Still, the entire Chinese solar segment is in positive territory over the last week. All but JA Solar (JASO) are ahead by more than 10% for the period.

As of this writing, the Chinese Solar Stocks Index on top of tickerspy’s one-month Index performance rankings, up by 15%. It should be an interesting sector to watch through the end of the fourth quarter, and into 2010.

Investors can track the Chinese Solar Stocks Index for performance trends and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

  Bond ETFs: Consistent Safety From Market Pullbacks
11/19/09 

Investors have options when stocks and commodities both sell off, and bond ETFs can be bought with a standard equity account.

Thanks to the proliferation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), equity investors now have a suite of options to protect themselves against a stock market selloff. Everything from commodities to currencies can be played with ETFs, but on a day like today, when they’re all selling off into cash, bonds emerge as the favorite.

A chart of the Bond ETFs Index versus the S&P 500 shows that, while relatively unexciting on the upside, bonds were largely immune to losses experienced by other investment vehicles during the recession.

On a day like today, when the Dow sinks by triple-digits, many investors are likely left wishing they had hedged their bets. However a look at the Commodity ETFs Index shows that only leveraged short ETFs like the PowerShares DB Crude Double Short (NSYE: DTO) and PowerShares DB Gold Double Short (DZZ) are winners today – so much for precious metals as a safe haven.

Meanwhile, a number of Bond ETFs are ticking higher during today’s session. While top performers like Vanguard Extended Duration ETF (EDV), PowerShares Insured California Municipal Bond Portfolio (PWZ), and iShares Barclays 10-20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLH) are all up by less than 1% for the day, long-term investors are slowly but surely gaining on their investments with very low downside risk.

Over the last three months, the SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (WIP), SPDR Barclays Capital International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX), and iShares JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Fund (EMB) have all appreciated by more than 5%. Meanwhile, only five of the Bond ETFs Index’s 49 components are negative for the period, two of them being the ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (PST) and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), which bet the reverse of the underlying bonds’ performance.

As of this writing, the Bond ETFs Index is one of the top-40 performing tickerspy Indexes over the last month.

For more on bond funds or a variety of other sector-based ETF Indexes visit tickerspy.com.

  Gold a Bright Spot for Bearish Commodity Investor Sprott
11/19/09 

The generally bearish outlook of commodity investor Eric Sprott has made for a challenging 2009 for his Canadian investment firm.

Sprott Inc., which debuted in a Canadian-listed IPO over a year ago, saw a wider loss year over year in its Q3 earnings report earlier this month. As might be expected for the commodity-oriented firm, the surging price of gold has been a bright spot. Eric Sprott said, “We continue to believe that gold and other precious metals will be the best store of value for investors over the longer term. As such, several of our larger funds have significant investments in physical gold and silver, as well as mining stocks.”

While Sprott has exposure to many Canadian-listed firms, American investors will be interested in the various U.S.-listed equities it holds, many of them mining stocks.

The largest U.S.-listed position in Sprott’s portfolio is silver miner Silver Wheaton (SLW), where he was increasing his stake during Q3.

Elsewhere, Sprott was adding to a number of stakes, including miners Jaguar Mining (JAG), Yamana Gold (AUY), Kinross Gold (KGC), Exeter Resource (XRA), and Eldorado Gold (EGO).

Meanwhile, he was trimming stakes in miners Golden Star Resources (GSS), IAMGOLD (IAG), Keegan Resources (KGN), and oil sands player Oilsands Quest (BQI).

The rest of Sprott’s top, U.S.-listed, equity holdings from the end of Q3 are available at tickerspy.com, where a performance graph shows that combined holdings have had a volatile but upward trajectory in recent months.

Visit tickerspy.com to see Sprott’s top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.

  Harvard Endowment Favors Mix of ETFs, International Names
11/19/09 

Though the market downturn was devastating for the Harvard endowment, 2009’s extend rally has kept the more dire forecasts from being realized.

According to Bloomberg, the value of Harvard’s investments fell by -27.3% in the year ended June 30, not as bad as the -30% decline that had been predicted and not as bad as the hits that other institutional investors took.

Though the endowment has substantial investments in alternative assets like real estate and private equity, investors can get a sense of Harvard’s strategy by looking at its U.S.-listed, equity holdings. They turn out to be quite diversified, with an international bias that makes ample use of a variety of ETFs.

Looking at Harvard’s top U.S.-listed holdings at the end of Q3, which were recently disclosed to the SEC, the largest U.S.-listed, equity holding by a wide margin was ETF iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM), where Harvard was adding its stake during the quarter.

Meanwhile, Harvard was upping its exposure to individual emerging and overseas markets via increased stakes in a variety of ETFs, including iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (FXI), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ), iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP), iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT), iShares MSCI Malaysia Index (EWM), and iShares MSCI South Africa Index (EZA).

Harvard also trimmed its stake in mobile telecom firm China Mobile (CHL), increased its stake in Israeli pharmaceutical company Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA), and opened a new stake in recent IPO Starwood Property Trust (STWD).

Looking at tickerspy.com’s graph charting the performance of the Harvard’s end-of-Q3 holdings so far in Q4, one can see that the holdings have outperformed the rising market. If you want to see how your performance stacks up to Harvard’s or see some of the other stocks and ETFs it’s invested in, visit tickerspy.com to see Harvard’s top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.

Pro portfolio performance is based on institutions’ top-15 holdings as disclosed in quarter-end filings with the SEC. Pro performance does not take into account additional holdings beyond the top 15 nor does it include positions that are not required to be disclosed by the SEC. As such, Pro portfolio performance should be considered an approximation and not a precise record of how an institution has performed over time.