Remember Swine Flu? It’s Likely Officially Over (HEB, INO, NVAX, BCRX, SVA, NVS, GSK, GNBT, RHHBY)

According to Bloomberg, the WHO is likely to announce an end to the H1N1 ’swine flu’ pandemic sometime this month. The news may come as a surprise, largely because a recent lack of media coverage likely led most to believe the threat ended months ago. All in all, $14 billion was spent on vaccines and antivirals for what Bloomberg described as little more than a fever and a cough in a majority of patients. If there’s one thing investors learned from the H1N1 scare, it’s that demand for preparedness can send stocks soaring despite an unclear ultimate impact of a viral outbreak.

A look at the Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index’s performance chart shows the vaccine and antiviral market’s near vertical ascent to huge gains starting in the summer of 2009. However, as media hype subsided and fears waned, shares tumbled sharply.

As of this writing, seven biotechs are more than -60% from their highs at the peak of the H1N1 scare last fall. Volatile micro-cap Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) has lost nearly -90% of its value, followed by Inovio Biomedical (INO), Novavax (NVAX), and Generex Biotech (GNBT). Even Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX), whose Peramivir antiviral won emergency use authorization from the FDA, and Sinovac Biotech (SVA), the first vaccine firm to win Chinese approval, have slipped by more than -50% from their respective 52-week highs.

Large-cap swine flu plays were the safest bets for investors, and while their gains weren’t as impressive as the small-caps last summer, massive portfolios of existing drugs kept stocks like Novartis AG (NVS), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and Roche (RHHBY) from getting slammed when hype subsided.

There’s no telling when the next potentially expansive viral outbreak will occur, but a number of Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index components could be beneficiaries as traders look to vaccine stocks and antiviral small-caps to get rich amidst the public scare and media blitz. Investors can track the Index for performance trends, Pro holdings data, and a suite of other metrics at tickerspy.com.

Tags: BCRX, GNBT, GSK, HEB, INO, NVAX, NVS, RHHBY, SVA