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Recent Notes & Research

Seagate Rising: Deutsche Ups to Buy, Sees Multiple Expansion
STX

CRUS Plunges 18% on Margin Warning; Stifel Cuts to Hold, Ponders Apple ImpactShares of chip maker Cirrus Logic (CRUS) are down $3.87, or almost 18%, at $18.20, after the company this morning said during an appearance by CEO Jason Rhode at the Barclays Global Technology conference that it will deliver revenue this quarter as previously forecast of $150 million to $170 million, but that it sees longer-term gross margin “in the mid-’40s” versus the current 50% to 52% forecast for this quarter. The company cited “increased pricing pressure.” A copy of Rhode’s prepared remarks are available in a federal filing this morning. The shares have received one downgrade so far, from Stifel Nicolaus’s Tore Svanberg, who cut his rating to Hold from Buy, and stripped away his $32 price target, writing “We are increasingly concerned about the uncertainty in Cirrus’s business model, given that Apple (AAPL), its largest customer, which represented 82.7% of Mar-Q revenue, is facing significant challenges and uncertainties of its own.” “We believe the ever more crowded and competitive smartphone market could have a lasting impact on Cirrus,” adds Svanberg. Svanberg cut this year’s estimates to $710.5 million and $1.73 per share in net profit from a prior $815.3 million and $2.85. Needham & Co.’s Vernon Essi also weighs in, reiterating a Buy rating, and cutting his price target to $22 from $26, calling today’s revelation “another dramatic set-back.” Essi sees further pressure on Cirrus’s chip prices, and opines that a lower-cost model of Apple’s iPhone, widely rumored for some time, could be partly to blame: Citing a desire to align the GM structure among its peers did little to disguise the widely held investor belief that prices at Apple (85% of revenue MRQ) are heading lower. The smallest of silver linings is that CRUS hasn’t lost a socket with Apple and there were indications that a lower priced form- factor handset from Apple could be in the works (and a reason for the price declines). However, it brings into focus two major opposing forces that could keep the shares in a stalemate: 1) the potential slippery slope of further Apple price declines, (many examples from other suppliers), and 2) the absence of any material product offsets on the horizon outside of Apple […] Though perhaps part of the reason for these declines, it appears likely that a lower cost offering is in the works at Apple. This correlates with prior discussion regarding integration roadmaps for the amp product to cater to lower-end handsets. Essi lowered his estimate for this year to $758 million and $2.35 per share from a prior $831 million and $3.25 per share. [yquote] AAPL CRUS [/yquote]
CRUS

Intel: ‘Silvermont’ Is Nimble, Needs Multiple Cores, Says Microprocessor Report
INTC

AAPL, BBRY, NOK To Suffer Android Smartphone Surge, Says Nomura
GOOG

This Morning: ECOM Soars, The $30 Cisco Story, Nibbles of AAPL
HPQ

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